Well, not quite Christmas but how's the racing on Saturday?!
Everest in Sydney, Caulfield Cup in Melbourne. Not bad huh? Let's have a look.
Why not get an early collect? How about that hey.
Race 1, backing the Danny O'Brien trained Skiddaw. If you were on it at Flemington, you would have been counting your winnings at about the 300m, but the three wide run told in the end and he folded up late. Third up here suits and out to the 1700m trip, like the $4.80 on offer early here.
The Caulfield Classic is Race 4, this is good race. Let's Karaka Deel went through the line hard held last start, what a tough watch if you were on. Had he not got blocked for a run, you'd think he probably wins, in fact I am certain he does. Hopefully on Saturday John Allen rolls forward here and takes luck out of the equation, if so, $3.80 looks very juicy.
Can they beat Alfa Oro in Race 7? I don't think so. Short but sweet, $2.00. This is a good horse, another one for Ben Melham. Big tick.
CAULFIELD CUP - Well this is tough isn't it. 6 months ago I would have told you off if you said anything but Master of Wine would be winning. He's still a chance but I am not in his corner now. There's three roughies that ran very well in the Turnbull that I'll be following here. I'll throw Warning on top, to beat Dalasan and Toffee Tongue. Thought Warning's run in the Turnbull was as good as any and it'll appreciate the step up to the 2400m maybe more than the others. Nice odds around $21!
I was going to start with Pancho in Race 3, funny old run last start and will only carry 49kgs but it's about as reliable as my 3-wood. So I'll keep the powder dry until later in the day.
Race 6, well it's all about Deprive, you can read that here.
EVEREST - Earlier in the week I thought there was only 4 that could win, now after the barrier draw, I think there's a big two, maybe two and a half. Behemoth looks the best bet for me, drawn well and hopefully gets a nice tempo to suit. Classique Legend was wide last start and boxed on well whilst Gytrash will likely get a tidy run. The other one of the four was Libertini, but she has drawn the carpark, she'll need to snag back to last you'd think and explode late, she's capable but it is a big assignment. I'll be backing Behemoth @ around $9.
In Race 8, going with QLD'er who went very wide on the turn in the Epsom and never came into it, Vanna Girl. Drawn well this weekend and appeared to finish the race off comparably, if not better than the short priced favourite here, Star of the Seas. Looks like some early backing for it as well, understandable. Quite like it around the $5 mark.
Crikey they haven't made it easy for us in Brisbane this week. Harder to pick than a broken nose.
Treading very very carefully.
Race 1, the short priced favourite looks hard to beat, Sugar Boom. She burnt the turf in a recent trial and looks primed 1st up. No prizes for picking that one.
Race 2, Clearance Sale had a tough run last week at the Sunny Coast and somehow still won, if he has taken no ill-effect from that hit out, he'll be winning. Presume from the barrier, Ben Thompson will have to take him back to the rear of the field, he may even get on to the back of the obvious danger, Mass Destruction. The small field suits here, he'll do no work early and come at them with one run right down the outside, $2.90 is fair.
ROUGHIE ALERT - Might be going off a run early here but Race 6 is wide open. Thought the first up run of City Smart was top notch. Couldn't keep up early and then rattled late. Third up over 2000m might be the go for this bloke, but @ $27, I've got to have a shy at the stumps here. R Fradd and Barrier 3, he'll go to sleep early and be strong late. Give it strength!
If we're battling late, it'll be either Awesome Pluck or Stampe in the last at Doomben!
Enjoy a great day of racing, it doesn't get too much better than this!
Good luck, good punting & gamble responsibly.