Lovely to hear from everyone throughout the week after a fair old fill up last Saturday. Parko, whilst it jumped at $9, we got in early, hope you got the $16's minus a few deductions. It wasn't just our mate Parko, what about Mister Sea Wolf, backed in hard and given a beaut ride by Nash. But, sadly that money is already spent, let's make some more bank this weekend.
Holy shit. What a great card of racing, Makybe Diva Stakes day. It looks an outstanding day and I think we've found some winners.
First bet of the day comes up in Race 3. This is a 2 horse race if I've ever seen one. Savatiano looks hard to beat here 1400m from Barrier 4. Admittedly, doesn't go as well 2nd up as she does 1st up, but regardless, she just seems to get the dream run here. However, I glanced across a mid-week trial of Arcadia Queen who presents as the obvious danger, if she is backed to anything like her best, she will win. Arcadia Queen is a good horse if they've got her right and if she gets any luck from the barrier, she wins. Give her strength with W Pike on, around $2.90.
Next race is the Bobbie Lewis Quality down the straight. Watched Tofane jump out and wasn't thrilled, she also hasn't won 1st up in her career. Zoutori looks the other main chance in the race but I am going to be all over Bold Star, the stablemate of Gytrash. Hit the line hard 1st up behind Diamond Effort and has great stats at Flemington. Craig Williams on, he'll just sit in behind and be strong late. Mindful too of The Inevitable, his best is very good, but Bold Star around the $4 mark looks a great chance.
In the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes, I am going to forgive a horse that didn't fire first up on a Soft track. Now, it looks like Flemington will be a Good track for this Saturday, but there is rain expected and a fair bit of it by the looks. If that hits, you can probably forget about this tip, but on a Good surface I'll be backing Master of Wine ($11). You wonder if by Race 7, if the track will be really chopped up or not should the rain come and if so, how many of these will be scratched with the bigger picture in mind. $91 about Gailo Chop currently, maybe not the worst bet if the heavens open.
It's all about the Run to the Rose in Sydney. What a great field! We'll get to that shortly.
First bet in Sydney, no prizes for getting this one but despite the bad barrier, Race 4, Masked Crusader. Cracking run first up, didn't lose my admiration after that one and will be better again 2nd up. The barrier isn't great, I'll bank on Tommy Berry doing his job here and putting the horse in a good spot. He might even go handle bars down and take him straight to the front, he's done it before in Sydney. $2 or thereabouts, happy to be on.
3:15pm on Saturday, get near a TV, this is a cracking race. I firmly believe every horse in this race has a bright future, but who wins Saturday? The speed map probably has Rothfire leading Farnan who comes across to sit outside, Peltzer might get the dream run in 3rd. If those three control the tempo, they'll fight it out and I can't see there being much between them. I'll tip Rothfire ($4.40) to control it and win, Farnan and Peltzer a lip away and the others running on. J Byrne and R Heathcote, they're a good combo up north, give the boy strength and hopefully he is a Buffering 2.0!
That's probably it for Sydney, don't mind Bowman getting back on Betcha Flying in the last if you're needing to get out of trouble.
Finding it fairly tricky in Brisbane this Saturday, might have found one in Race 6 at odds worth a peanut each way. May be going off 1 run too soon here, but the top weight, Benfica Princess. Again, 4th up, 1800m might be more to her liking but at $35 I've got to have a bit each way, just light, nothing too serious.
Race 8 sees the return of Alligator Blood. 61kg's is a fair assignment 1st up but obviously he's a serious horse. Good speed engaged, expecting Fiery Heights to run them along and cross The Odyssey ($4.40) early. That'll give The Odyssey a dream run 2nd or 3rd the fence. $1.80 is short for Alligator Blood, I'll be backing The Odyssey here to cause the upset, hopefully Steph Thornton can be off and running at the top of the straight and make Alligator Blood do some chasing. Cracking race!
Just a quick glance at Adelaide, I'll be waiting until late in the day there as well. Race 8, I'll have a bit each way on Street Life 1st up and in the last, despite the bad barrier, Instant Celebrity.
Good luck, good punting, gamble responsibly.