Well, well, well.
Derby Day in Melbourne and like every year, a cracking day of racing at Flemington. A couple of winners last weekend but I am feeling super confident this week, let's strap ourselves in for a good carnival.
Getting the cash early in Melbourne. First bet of the day is Race 3, Craig Williams jumps on South Australian horse, Kemalpasa. I think Willo would have had his choice of a few here which fills me with confidence, that and the fact Kemalpasa finished just 0.2L off Zoutori down the straight last start. Think this is just a really good each way bet around $6.
Race 5 on the day is the Empire Rose Stakes, Mystic Journey looked to be back to somewhere near her best last start at The Valley and really like the booking of Kerrin McEvoy here. $4.20 is around the right price, the Thousand Guineas winner with no weight, Odeum, it'll be hard to beat and Pretty Brazen looks over the odds as well but tipping Mystic Journey to win again.
I've been caught out before, but this Derby looks like a two horse race between the two favourites. I'll be with Young Werther, we were keen on him last week and he got taken out on the track downgrade. Backing Danny O'Brien to have him ready and $4.20 or thereabouts is back-able, may even get better. With any rain, Cherry Tortoni becomes very hard to beat, so thinking Young Werther on the Good track.
Race 8 on the day is the Cantala, loyalty may be getting the better of me here but backing King's Legacy for Glen Boss to run a great race around $19. We were with him in the Caulfield Guineas and he didn't come on in the straight, think Flemington, Bossy and no weight will suit much better!
Tough day in Sydney and plenty of rain around, banking it being a Heavy track. Nothing to get involved in until Race 6 on the day, the absolute swimmer, Wu Gok. Terribly out of form but 8 wins from 13 on heavy tracks reads fairly well! $5.50 is a good price, don't expect to be getting that on Saturday.
The other really good bet on the card is in the following race, Gytrash. This looks a bloody good thing doesn't it? Drawn out but if the track is very heavy, that shouldn't be a problem, in fact, it's probably advantageous. Jason Collett can do what he wants, probably go forward and try and find a spot. No goes on Heavy tracks but Soft record is brilliant. Super keen on this big fella to get the chocolates, $2.70 is a farking nice price!
No firm opinion on the big race of the day in Sydney, the Golden Eagle. If I was forced to have a bet, I'd back Colette on the wet track, it might be looking for further but certainly get it's chance in this field.
Heaps of rain around in Brisbane this week, presume we will be on something like a Soft 6 track by the time we go racing for a 10 race card.
Like a few this week, first one comes up in Race 5 at great each way odds, Plumaro. $14 or thereabouts, getting up to the 2040m trip for the first time. Always been a fan of this horse and I think it now needs this extra trip. It'll settle probably worse than midfield and hopefully jockey Ben Thompson can pinch some runs through the pack, don't mind it at good each way odds!
Race 7 on the card, the best bet of the weekend, you can read about that here!
Race 9 is the last bet in Brisbane for us for the day, Prospectus loves the soft track and with a decent sized field should get some tempo on. Even if there's a million scratchings, the small field will allow him to sit closer, so either way, I am keen on him after flashing home last start. $3.50 or thereabouts, like it.
One really good bet in Adelaide this weekend, one of our old mates, Debt Collector. Love this bloke first up over 1200m, super keen here.
Enjoy Derby Day, we'll have a Melbourne Cup Day preview for you on Monday!
Good luck, good punting & gamble responsibly.
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