Updated: Jul 25, 2020
Bletchingly Stakes Day, the unofficial start of spring and a good Saturday of racing ahead of us. Dealing with some rain affected tracks, won't stop us finding a couple of winners!
Powder dry, powder dry, powder dry, then BANG. That'll be the strategy @ Caulfield this Saturday, not really getting the back arched and the form guide in the right hand until Race 7 which is indeed the feature. Soft track, seems like it'll be drying as well. If it was wet? You'd give Jungle Edge the cheque now and not run the race, but he doesn't exactly get conditions to suit on Saturday, or so it appears. But I am not going with the favourite in Viridine either, I am going up with a favourite of mine, Widgee Turf who is one that will appreciate a drying surface. Beaten just 2.5 lengths in the Group1 Rupert Clarke in the spring, admittedly was a bit short of his best prior to a spell but I like him first up here and can see B Rawiller hooking him out and zooming past them, $7 is a nice price.
In Race 8, the three at the top of weights appear the clear top picks on ratings and recent form. I am going to play the trifecta here, in order I'll take Mahamedeis to beat Sasko and Double You Tee. Maybe I am getting a bit too adventurous after a few solid weeks in a row? Time will tell.
Last race of the day in Melbourne, the unbeaten Mystery Shot looks to make it 5 wins from as many starts and I dead set can not find a thing to beat him. Drawn perfectly, I think Roddy will put the whip away 100m out here, he'll be in cruise control, exciting prospect!
Righto, who saw the trial of Hot 'N' Hazy? 14.3 lengths the official margin. Wow! $3.20 they put up in Race 1 in Sydney, taken already and currently sits at around a $2.50. To my eye, that won't last either, it'll ping out and although he'll probably cop a bit of heat in front from Mr Colourful, he just looks a big brute of a thing that'll be too good for this lot. I am jumping on now, expect it to start shorter on game day.
Getting the rest of the money in Races 5 & 6 in Sydney. I've had a difficult relationship with Loveseat, bit of a tease, thought Bossy had a lapful last start at the top of the straight but couldn't finish off, having said that, easier race and back in trip should suit. I'll be backing it and in Race 6, Travest disappointed favourites backers last start, but actually ran very well against the pattern of the day. Think the $3.70 in early markets is good shopping and the step up to 1400m only helps my confidence. Don't get me wrong, this is a good race, Dancing Gidget for that old combo, what are their names, that's it, Waller & Bowman, it'll go well and even Leg Work at huge odds is a knock out chance. Sticking with Travest, give it strength.
Bit of rain around in Brisbane to end the week, I would think we are going to be playing on a Soft track with the predicted rainfall to come. A tricky day too, short priced favourite in the 2nd race appears to be quality but has to carry the grandstand so at even money, going to leave it out of the best bets but cheer it home all the same, hopefully prior to a raid south of the border.
I'l be having two bets at Doomben, a horse that initially thought would be better suited if the race was over the road at Eagle Farm, but then I look at the form guide and from 6 starts at Doomben, it has won 3 and finished third in the other 3. That's Right or Wrong, Race 3 in Brisbane. Looks ready to win and just finds the right race with a few slow coaches. I wouldn't mind seeing Brad Stewart giving him a little squeeze and landing in a more forward position this week, but I'll leave the jockeying to him!
The other bet on the card for me, with the predicted rain is last start winner, albeit in possibly the closest photo finish of all-time, Bold Style. $13 it has come up and loves the wet. Big weight, offset by the claim for apprentice Alex Patis, meaning it'll get in just 3kgs above the minimum. I am keeping an eye on Better Reflection as well, clearly the best horse in the race but has put a couple of stinkers together on the trot, trialled up much better and from Barrier 1, could surprise. Bit of value in the 7th!
At a quick glance in Adelaide, the Lightning Stakes draws together a good field! Just Zerene draws the pole and will be hard to beat, whilst in the race prior, I'll be backing up again on Getouttheway at each way odds, let's pray for a clean getaway! The clear bet of the day? Race 5 in Adelaide, Octane. Clearly on top! Better than bank interest!
Good luck and as always, gamble responsibly.