I'm finding them harder to pick then a broken nose at the moment so I am little gun shy heading into this weekend. Some good quality racing right around the country and hopefully, just hopefully, we can find a few winners to line our pockets with prior to a few beers on Saturday night.
Tricky start to the day in Melbourne, there's some good value to be had and if you can find something early on, you're likely to get good odds. Going to keep it nice and simple in terms of a betting strategy and back the up and coming Alfa Oro, never finished further back then 2nd in its 6 start career and held on impressively last time out at Flemington. I think from Barrier 5 it will get a beautiful run and will be getting the chocolates. Around $2.50 in the market, I get it, the peanut gallery will yell 'boo, you're a favourite backer', but I think it wins. The following race and 3rd leg of the Melbourne quaddie, Harbour Views is also a short price favourite and did win well at The Valley last start. But every time I think about mortgaging the house and getting stuck right into Harbour Views, he lets me down. I think Double You Tee and Mahamedeis, dropping back to the 2000m, present as bit dangers to the favourite so I'm going to back one of those two on the each way. In the last on the day, I am going to have a small investment on a horse that the Corstens yard seem to be persisting with, Cadogan. Not a bad run at Flemington, might be ready to go, also worth a bit each way perhaps.
Heavy conditions for Rosehill, no further rain predicted but I can't see the track getting too much firmer. My day will start in Sydney with the 3200m Coolmore Stayer's Cup. I am going to back Loveseat who I think will get the 3200m better than the others. Already good money for it and gets the services of G Boss, a bloke who knows a bit about winning races over the 2 miles. Respect for the favourite, hopefully Loveseat is just a bit too good with no hurdles in the way. Race 6 over the 2000m is a Waller Vs Lees title fight. Wide open race, a stack of chances. I am nothing if not loyal, and I am going to stick with Black On Gold, although if the track is really heavy, he probably has no hope to be fair and in fact, they may scratch. If he's out, I'll go with another roughie, that ran well in the worst part of the track last start I thought, another one for Bossy, Primitivo.
A shortened QLD carnival this year but still some quality racing to be had at Doomben this Saturday. I think Vanna Girl is just about the best horse in QLD at the moment and Cellarmaid ran home very strong behind her last start, I am going to go with her to win the second.
Cellarmaid will need some tempo on but looks a great chance!
Race 6 looks like a two-horse race between the two favourites, I think Thy Kingdom Come can get the job done again, it got out very late and just got up last start and Michael Cahill, who's riding in great form, will give it the plum ride from Barrier 3. I'll take it to beat Soxagon. Always looking for roughies in the last, I don't mind Time to Play drawn on the inside, if you're really desperate, maybe it can save some of our lives late in day, give it strength.
Best of the weekend clearly Alfa Oro whilst I liked the run of Cellarmaid last start! Good luck, good punting and gamble responsibly!