Racing back @ Moonee Valley for All-Star Mile Day.
Good racing right around the country again, last Saturday was a farken struggle, we're making more bank midweek than on Saturday's, that needs to change.
Let's dive in.
Surely if Persan rocks up half fit he wins this race @ $3.20. Last start was a 5th in the Melbourne Cup and the trainers know how to get shit done. Claims 3kg so gets well in at the weights, $3.20 might look a good price come Saturday. The danger might be Too Close The Sun with a great record at the track, distance and second up.
Very tough outside of that in Melbourne, perhaps the only other bet might be Cherry Tortoni ($1.95) in the Alister Clark, which is Race 5 on the day. No prizes for putting this on top. Sure, it was beaten by a $301 shot last start, but they all were! Third up into this, Young Werther might be the only fly in the ointment if he's ready to peak third up but Cherry Tortoni looks hard to hold out here.
Great card of racing in Sydney, kicking things off in the first. This fellow broke our hearts last start in finishing third but had to make a long and wide run off a slow tempo, that's Great House. We'll get better than the $2 on offer, give him strength.
Colette's a short priced favourite in Race 4, but worried about her back on a firm track. If there's any rain, she becomes a good thing but I won't be betting in this one, just watching.
My next bet will be on Challiot in the Coolmore Classic. What about this win first up, backed from something like $11 into $3.80 and won well from the tail. Probably a similar story on Saturday, we won't be wanting a mad leader bias @ Rosehill. If Chaillot can just get a bit of cover and a decent enough run, it'll have a great finishing burst. $8 is a nice price for this girl.
My best of the day comes up in Race 8 - you can read about that here, and yes, we're due!
Racing on the Gold Coast, it's not Magic Millions weekend but they've thrown up a nice card nonetheless.
I looked at acceptances before they put the prices up, I thought Sugar Boom would be $1.60 or something like that. It's come up $2.15! Sure, it has 59kg but with Michael Rodd and only 900m, this just has too much speed. If it's a really heavy track, I won't be playing, if it's anything like a Soft 6 or better, which I think it probably should be based on the forecast, then Sugar Boom should be winning, but caution - I won't be backing this on a HEAVY track!
In Race 5, Socialising has come up a very short price favourite - too short in fact. The Candy Man and Vanna Girl are much better horses, I'll be back one of those to beat the favourite.
In Race 9 of the day, I was praying that Epic Girl would draw a barrier, she's drawn 20 of 20. Not great, had she drawn soft, I probably would have made her the bet of the day across all venues. That said, I'll still have a nice play on her at each way odds of $11 and hope the Adin Thompson can get a cheap enough lead from the draw and give this girl a breather in the run. If she does get a cheap sectional or two, she'll give a good kick in the straight. Lots of the other chances haven't drawn great, In His Stride might be the danger @ big odds.
Good luck, good punting & gamble responsibly.
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