AFL Betting Round 4

Sometimes in life you simply overthink things.

That too is often the case in sports betting.

That’s exactly what happened last Thursday when I foolishly thought that Lachie Neale would collect more AFL Fantasy points than Brodie Grundy.

Although Neale improved his output from the opening two rounds, he didn’t enter into the same stratosphere as Grundy who went massive for 152 points.

We finished 2-3 for the weekend in what was the first round of the season that saw more losers than winners. Outside of the Grundy v Neale matchup, Izaak Rankine decided to kick a goal in the first five minutes and then disappear for the rest of the game (needed 2+ goals), and the Blues kicked a late goal to beat the Dockers by 45 when we needed them 1-39.

On the winning side of things, the Dogs covered the -41.5 line with the greatest possible ease, whilst a $2.20 multi (Cats win, Miers anytime goal scorer, Stewart 20+ disposals) saw us end the long weekend on a high.

For tonight’s clash at the SCG, I’m all about Essendon’s gun midfielder Zach Merrett. Now usually that’s in a good way, the bloke is usually pretty dependable to gather 25-30+ disposals as part of a multi.

However, for this one, I’m going against him. I simply don’t see a way in which he doesn’t cop major attention from George Hewett, one of the premier taggers in the competition. He kept Dustin Martin to 20 disposals and no impact in the Swans surprise victory over the Tigers last week.

With this in mind, I like the following thanks to Sportsbet and PlayUp:

Merrett under 30.5 disposals @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

AFL Fantasy Points Matchup – Merrett v Lloyd – Lloyd @ $2.20 (PlayUp)

For the point of this article and recording the results, I’m going to take the Fantasy matchup on PlayUp.

Also, for what it’s worth, I don’t mind Sydney to win big (40+ @$2.40) despite the Bombers big win over the Saints.

Check me out on Twitter (@pok252) for more thoughts and tips on the AFL across the weekend.

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