AFL Betting Round 3

Those of you who read the corresponding article last week would have been happy with last Thursday night's result.

Yes, it's not huge. It's slightly under double your money in fact. However, a win is a win and we thank Sam Walsh for getting the chocolates against Steele Sidebottom in that head to head fantasy match up.

For anyone following along on Twitter, Friday night was a disappointing result as Jordan Clark went missing in the final quarter, much like the umpire did when Zac Bailey tackled Mark Blicavs in the goal square with 30 seconds to go.

Saturday saw me having way too many beers to tweet anything close to a rational thought, so I decided to keep my last tip of the round for the last game over in Perth. As discussed earlier in the week in another article, I'm now completely off the Giants and thankfully the Dockers saluted at the -2.5 line.

Now if people are sick of these little $1.90 line bets, here's some more value as I delve into tonight's match between the Pies and the Lions.

Our mates at PlayUp have a fantasy match-up between Brodie Grundy and Lachie Neale. Now the obvious play is to look at each player's score over the opening two rounds, see that the Lions number one ruckman in Oscar McInerney is out, and therefore take Grundy.

That rationale is reflected in his price currently sitting at $1.42.

I'm going to go against the grain though. With this game now under the roof at Marvel Stadium, I'm expecting it to favour the midfielder rather than the ruckman. If this were at the MCG or the Gabba, then Grundy would probably be advantaged by the unpredictable conditions and potential of more stoppages which result in more hitouts.

I'm also really surprised that the Pies haven't gone with Levi Greenwood in this game, specifically to chase Neale around for 120 minutes and prevent him from getting the pill. After being completely nullified by Mark O'Connor last Friday night, there's no one I can see in the Collingwood lineup that could do a similar shut down role on Neale.

These factors, along with the fact the Pies gave up bulk disposals and fantasy points in round one against the Dogs, means I think the $2.75 on offer for Neale is great value.

Let's see how we go and remember to check me out on Twitter (@pok252) for more tips throughout the weekend.

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